6/28/2023 0 Comments Doug kass real money pro(He's looking for a new S&P 500 high by year's end). One exception is my pal Tobias Levkovich at Citigroup, who sees his panic/fear numbers signaling buying opportunities. Most commentators are downbeat now, with only the perma-bulls remaining bullish. There's a clear demarcation line between the business media's degree of enthusiasm today vs. Originally published at 1:37 PM EDT on September 4, 2015Ī pattern of "lower highs and lower lows" remains in place. Takeaways and Observations (Early Edition) Must Read: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway: The Insider's Guide I'm adding to my long of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF on strength off of the session lows and putting Goldman Sachs GS and Morgan Stanley MS on my Best Ideas list at prices paid this afternoon. Originally published at 3:14 PM EDT on September 4, 2015 reward.Ībove all I subscribe to Warren Buffett's adage: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." Instead, I pay close attention to upside/downside ratios and risk vs. ![]() Remember, my approach to investing is virtually indifferent to charts. I differed in view both then and now, although I might be wrong. I find that some who were previously bullish (particularly in our comments section) are now very glum and bearish. My advice is that we should all try to be emotionless, particularly given the 200-point-plus drop in the S&P 500 in recent days. And there will probably be more if we see any further market weakness.Īm I generally bullish? Not really, yet - but the first move toward turning more bullish is to turn less cautious and start to accumulate value. Well, several of those companies are finally moving into my buy zones - most notably Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today. I wrote months ago that I had completed research on a number of large-cap stocks that I would find attractive at the right price. Originally published at 3:25 PM EDT on September 4, 2015 Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings. ![]() Since banks are likely to pay higher rates for deposits because of sky-high money market and Treasury yields, banks may face a reckoning as revenue and profit shrink.”īy Thursday’s close individual banks fell with their respective ETFs, as Bank of America, ( BAC) Wells Fargo ( WFC) and Citizens Financial ( CFG) all plummeted by around 6%.NEW YORK ( Real Money Pro) - Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. ![]() “If a dip in economic activity causes layoffs, cash-strapped borrowers will likely mean fewer loans and higher default rates. “The risk GDP falls again because of rising interest rates is increasing,” wrote Campbell. “I did not exit my bank stocks on Tuesday, but I did reduce my exposure to the space by close to 50%,” said Guilfoyle the day before the bloodletting.Ĭampbell on Wednesday noted in his TheStreet Smarts column, presciently titled “ Is It Time To Sell Bank Stocks?" that higher interest rates could drag on banks, as could lowering demand for loans as the economy putters. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLF), meanwhile, was down more than 4% on the close.īanks, explained Guilfoyle early Wednesday morning, “don't do so well during periods of economic recession as demand for credit dries up as business and households cut back on spending plans.” He also noted that as the mortgage business ebbs, banks also feel the crunch. The ETF for regional banks, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ( KRE), was down nearly 4.7%. It was down more than 10% from just five days earlier. And he listed numerous reasons to be wary of the financial-services sector: deposits data, higher rates lasting longer than expected, commercial real estate woes, the lack of monetary and fiscal policy relief that were seen during the Great Recession, and “zombie companies” he sees as a “disaster about to happen.”īy Thursday’s close, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF ( KBE) had fallen 7.28% to $42.66. Kass also warned of the “ bearish” messages coming out of JPMorgan and others in the financial-services sector in conferences earlier in the week. ![]() “Late last week we essentially sold out of our long bank holdings - based on our growing concerns regarding the commercial real estate space and other credit fears, rising deposit (funding) betas and the likely economic consequences of the Fed's problems associated with taming inflation,” Kass wrote in his Daily Diary post, “ Banks Bust,” at 7:30 a.m. Get actionable advice from Doug Kass and 30+ Wall Street pros with a Real Money Pro subscription And so did the TheStreet Smarts’ Todd Campbell. Hedge fund manager Doug Kass, author of Real Money Pro's Daily Diary, and Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle, who writes the popular Market Recon column on Real Money, for example, earlier in the week gave warnings about the looming risks.
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